Taleb, Nassim. Antifragile: things that gain from disorder / Nassim Nicholas Taleb. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN The notions of fragility and antifragility were introduced in Taleb(,). In short, fragility is related to how a system suffers from the variability. Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder: Book Review. Nassim NicholasTaleb, Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder, New York: Random House, In the book, Antifragile: Things that Gain from Disorder, the author Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
|Language:||English, Spanish, Indonesian|
|Distribution:||Free* [*Registration Required]|
THE ANTIFRAGILE. Some things benefit from shocks; they thrive and grow when exposed to volatility, randomness, disorder, and stressors and. NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: TO PREVAIL IN AN UNCERTAIN. WORLD, GET Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder, by Taleb, a philosopher and businessman. .. 4 terney.info Coleman and I. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder “Antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness. The resilient resists shocks and stays the.
In the same way, beaming light on the unseen is costly, in both computational and mental effort. He states that statistics is fundamentally incomplete as a field, as it cannot predict the risk of rare events, a problem that is acute in proportion to the rarity of these events.
With the mathematician Raphael Douady , he called the problem statistical undecidability Douady and Taleb, Taleb sees his main challenge as mapping his ideas of "robustification" and " antifragility ", that is, how to live and act in a world we do not understand and build robustness to black swan events. Taleb introduced the idea of the "fourth quadrant" in the exposure domain. These are deemed by Taleb to be more robust to estimation errors.
For instance, he suggests that investing money in 'medium risk' investments is pointless, because risk is difficult, if not impossible to compute.
His preferred strategy is to be both hyper-conservative and hyper-aggressive at the same time. An alternative suggestion is to engage in highly speculative bets with a limited downside. Taleb asserts that by adopting these strategies a portfolio can be "robust", that is, gain a positive exposure to black swan events while limiting losses suffered by such random events. Jaynes that economic life increases in entropy under regulatory and other constraints.
Instead of doing steady and moderate exercise daily, he suggests that it is better to do a low-effort exercise such as walking slowly most of the time, while occasionally expending extreme effort.
He claims that the human body evolved to live in a random environment, with various unexpected but intense efforts and much rest. In other words, studies that ignore the random nature of supply of nutrients are invalid.
Praise and criticism[ edit ] In a article in The Times , the journalist Bryan Appleyard described Taleb as "now the hottest thinker in the world". His book, The Black Swan, is an original and audacious analysis of the ways in which humans try to make sense of unexpected events.
The magazine offered a mixture of praise and criticism for Taleb's main points, with a focus on Taleb's writing style and his representation of the statistical literature. Robert Lund, a mathematics professor at Clemson University , writes that in Black Swan, Taleb is "reckless at times and subject to grandiose overstatements; the professional statistician will find the book ubiquitously naive.
Click To Tweet He who has never sinned is less reliable than he who has only sinned once. Antifragile is the instruction manual for living in a world full of possibilities, and this microbook will introduce you to its key concepts. Antifragile Benefits From Chaos Fragility is a simple concept.
We know that porcelain or a set of crystal bowls are fragile items that require special care. If they are not handled with care, they will inevitably break, and therefore we must know how to deal with this fragility, to be ready for unforeseen events. It is necessary to pack them well for transport, to ensure that in case of unexpected occurrence, they do not break.
But when we try to talk about the opposite of fragility, we have great difficulty. How should we call that which is not fragile? Many would say that the opposite of fragility is robustness.
But robustness is not the opposite of weak. A sturdy item may not even break when an accident occurs, but it does not benefit from this situation. Apparently, no word defines this situation, items that benefit from the unexpected. Taleb wed the coined that will guide our narrative: the Antifragile, which is the antithesis of the fragile.
The Hydra was a multi-headed serpent that terrified the Greeks and was known to be indestructible. Each time someone cut one of the heads, two others grew in that place. The more the Hydra was attacked, the stronger it became. She was the definition of the antifragile. Think of the evolutionary theory of Charles Darwin, about how creatures change and adapt.
Evolution only happens in a fickle and hostile environment. Whenever a difficulty occurs, evolution forces life to adjust so that it fits well into the new environment. However, there is an interesting aspect of this concept: while the process itself is antifragile, the individuals who participate in it are fragile.
Evolution happens when genetic code is passed and generates changes known as mutations. As the changes persist, the individuals who have helped in this change suffer over time. The death of these members is necessary to make room for evolution.
One of the rules of antifragility is precisely this: for a system to be antifragile, most of its parts must be fragile.
Failures, therefore, are a crucial part of the process, which works in a trial-and-error method. With every mistake made by the individuals involved, the system strengthens because it learns new things and becomes better. The economy is also an antifragile system. The constituent parts, such as people and companies, are somehow fragile, but the economy itself is the opposite.
For it to grow, some of these parts must fail, because we must learn from the mistakes made by its elements. When a company ends up failing, it teaches the other parts of the economic system some lessons about how not to die in this environment.
When we do physical exercises, for example, we are experiencing antifragility because we are exposing our body to abnormal forces, so that it strengthens and grows our muscles.
In one exercise, muscles are confronted by stressful forces, such as weights. This power makes our antifragile system respond with overcompensation, improving our ability to deal with stresses that in theory would cause fragility. Strength comes from overcompensation in times of adversity, and it leaves anti-fragile systems with elements of excess power built in response to stressors. In theory, we waste strength in exercising, and common sense tells us that success depends on the efficient use of our resources, not waste.
On the other hand, overcompensation and redundancy are vital to antifragility, as they prepare us for unknown and uncertain problems.
The exercise that seemed like a waste of time actually can save us from an emergency where we need to run or jump. This redundancy, in fact, leaves us better able to cope and survive in adverse and unexpected situations. While antifragility is found in natural and biological systems, fragile systems are often artificial.
Therefore, most things created by man should not be antifragile, because they cannot improve through mistakes and the unexpected.
A human-made system may even be robust, but it is rarely anti-fragile. Think, for example, of a car. The car can run thousands of miles and last for dozens of years but its use, over time, will make it weaker and worn, until the moment it succumbs. However, although uncommon, there are artificial antifragile systems. The economy, for example, has an almost biological structure and is so complex that it has become antifragile.
But complexity alone does not make a system antifragile. To be anti-fragile, it also needs inconsistency. Inconsistencies are shocks and stressors that define which units should die to strengthen the system. In a predictable and calm system, there are no stressors and also no pressure on the units of the system. With this, the antifragility of the scheme gradually disappears. Therefore, trying to control the antifragile tends only to weaken it.
In most cases where a government tries to tame the economy through interventions and regulations, for example, the weakens the economy. When a government tries to make its economy more predictable, it removes stressors, and this eventually weakens the system.
Tranquility removes the information that is learned by inconsistency, through trial and error, which weakens the system as a whole. We tend to believe that theoretical knowledge will lead us to practical knowledge, but this is rare.
Think of it this way: if you know how to design a rocket, you probably do not know how to be an astronaut. Predictably Irrational explains it pretty well with scientific tests. He says it took 6.
Can you imagine, he says, how many supposedly super smart people, traveling to and from conventions of PhDs exerted an inordinate amount of sweat but never thought of a luggage with wheels? The same invention came 30 years after the moon landing, which seemed such a great thing… But the moon landing did little to improve our lives, the wheeled luggage did. New great discoveries and breakthrough happen by trying things out, by tinkering around, and then theoretical knowledge plays catch up and explains it.
The author then sums up a few rules: Look for optionality many options Open ended pay offs Invest in people, not business plans Apply the barbell principle limit your downside Chapter A Lesson in Disorder In this chapter Nassim Taleb takes it again on education and soccer moms. What we learn in class often really stays in class and is rarely translate into real life.
The examples the author uses in the book are really great and also hilarious, ranging from bigwigs who got it all wrong on oil prices skyrocketing after the Iraq invasion to the traders who would be considered smart when they could spell their street correctly who were very successful at what they were doing. And of course, the cap it off the example of the gym rat at a major disadvantage against the street fighter or mafia hit man :. Your body is fragile to alcohol and five bottles of wine in one go is more damaging to your body than five bottles spread out over five days.
He says that collaboration is another tool to reach antifragility.
Similarly as adding up units in nonlinear systems brings non-linear increments, also adding up people to a well functioning team adds up more than the sum of its parts. He says that robust, strong decisions, require just one single reason. When asked how the future house will look like, for example, a shelf full of books is a good guess because a shelf full of books has been around for centuries.
A chair is another safe bet. Wine and forks… Huge safe bets. The same goes to papers and books. A recent book, same. A book who has been popular for a decade instead is likely to stay popular for another ten.
A pound what you can imagine holding in your hands. The episode of Nassim Taleb in the emergency room arguing with the doctor if he had any evidence a ice pack on the nose was going to help in any way was hilarious.
It made me smile when Taleb says a big improvement in his life came from removing offensive irritants such as TV, air conditioning, long commutes and.. Newspapers since just reading of Friedman and Paul Krugman would lead to unnecessary bouts of anger :. Skin in the game means people who take part in a system should also lose out if that system goes bust.
For example, the Roman had the chief architects and constructors stand beneath the bridge they had just erected. Or the leaders of the ancient times used to put their own life on the line as a consequence of their decision.
Today instead overpaid bankers can bankrupt a bank, or the whole system, and walk away with big bonuses.
Chapter Fitting Ethics to a Profession In this chapter, Nassim Taleb talks about the hedonic treadmill many of us are slaves. Practical Applications Comfort is weakening of the will Push your limits and do make experiences to become antifragile. I do not find offensive, however, I can also understand if one were to label Taleb of being a bit arrogant.